Windows Phone: A Solid OS Missing the Hype

There was no line outside circling the block. No employees handing out burritos to hungry patrons. No four-hour wait for a phone that I had already preordered.

This was launch day for Windows Phone 7. Fanfare was nowhere to be found. But inside the AT&T store was a device that boldly rethinks what a modern smartphone operating system should be like.

It just may be too late. If we lived in a different world Microsoft would take another six months and work out the bugs from what really feels like a beta OS. But they don’t have that luxury. In fact, Windows Phone 7 comes about two years behind the rest of the smartphone makers who scurried to start adding iPhone-esque features to their devices.

What I believe separates Windows Phone from the Droid line and others is that it is not another imitation of the iPhone. Yes there is a browser and apps, but the interface is reinvented. The live tiles are easy to glance at, flick and peruse. Continue reading

The Windows Phone Moment

Microsoft is the 700-pound underdog. After more than three years of mobile mediocrity Redmond is hoping to relaunch itself into the lucrative smart phone business with an unveiling of Windows Phone 7 in New York and London on Monday. At stake? Nothing less than its future in mobile computing and CEO Steve Ballmer’s credibility.

A few quick thoughts on the questions tomorrow’s launch raises:

  • Is it too late? We are now on the fourth iteration of the iPhone and there are numerous excellent Android devices. And even with its market slipping there are still plenty of BlackBerry loyalists. At least half of mobile phone users still have not made the smartphone leap, so can they be lured to Windows Phone?
  • What happens if the iPhone really does land on Verizon in 2011? Does the Windows Phone’s limitation to AT&T and T-Mobile severely hamper its ability to be competitive?
  • Will the apps be good enough? According to Microsoft over 2,000 are in Windows Marketplace at launch. Today’s consumer has been trained to want good apps. Will they be that good at the launch of a new operating system?
  • Can Microsoft get anyone to switch? Android and iPhone owners have high levels of device satisfaction. Can Microsoft get some converts?

The fun begins early Monday morning.

Is the iPad Killing the Netbook?

This chart has become one of the most discussed on the topic of iPads vs. netbooks.

Many pundits and commentators are debating whether or not the iPad is eating into netbook sales. Some studies indicate the iPad is the stake into the heart of the netbook (see here and here.) Others say this is typical Apple-inspired hyperbole (here and here).

Getting to the truth is tricky because tech commentary lately sounds too much like our political system: polarized into overly dogmatic camps who talk at, instead of to, each other. On the one hand are the Apple fanboys, who find Apple devices as items of worship and take pronouncements from Steve Jobs as if the Pope were speaking ex cathedra. Yet there are also the Apple haters, who compare every Apple product to a Fischer Price toy and think all Apple innovations were stolen from someone else.

Instead of listening to these warring factions we should interpret the data. It is fair to infer the massive growth experienced by netbooks is probably declining because most who wanted one have bought it. Most new products that achieve popularity have a spike in sales and then eventually decline.
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