Many pundits and commentators are debating whether or not the iPad is eating into netbook sales. Some studies indicate the iPad is the stake into the heart of the netbook (see here and here.) Others say this is typical Apple-inspired hyperbole (here and here).
Getting to the truth is tricky because tech commentary lately sounds too much like our political system: polarized into overly dogmatic camps who talk at, instead of to, each other. On the one hand are the Apple fanboys, who find Apple devices as items of worship and take pronouncements from Steve Jobs as if the Pope were speaking ex cathedra. Yet there are also the Apple haters, who compare every Apple product to a Fischer Price toy and think all Apple innovations were stolen from someone else.
Instead of listening to these warring factions we should interpret the data. It is fair to infer the massive growth experienced by netbooks is probably declining because most who wanted one have bought it. Most new products that achieve popularity have a spike in sales and then eventually decline.
Continue reading
